Tuesday, December 4, 2012

Far-East economic crisis of 1998 - Hamad Mohamed


The Far-East economic crisis that occurred in 1998 is probably one of the most important events in the region for the past decades. The crisis not only affected the region but raised fears to lead to a worldwide economic meltdown. The crisis first started in Thailand when it was forced to stop the peg of its currency with US dollar and make it a floating currency due to the lack of reserves of foreign currency to support its peg. Later, the crisis spread to Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines and South Korea. At first the crisis was not given enough attention and thought that it will only last for several months. Instead the financial crisis has been transformed into a full-blown recession or depression. GDP started falling and unemployment rates started rising in the affected countries. Moreover, the threat of recession started to spread in the region reaching Russia.

Initially the crisis was blamed on the bad actions of banks, financial institutions, and the over speculation in the real estate and stock markets which caused bubbles that burst later in the crisis. However, the main causes of the crisis are still anonymous and still being debated in academic institutions.

What made the impact of the crisis bigger and worse are the huge capital outflows from the region due to the crisis. Figures show that around $184 Billion came into the region between 1994 and 1996, and suddenly in 1997 when the crisis hit $102 billion went out of the region. That had a great impact due to the liquidation of assets which reduced its prices and capital outlflows which led to the depreciation of the currency. As a result, the countries affected had to pay more of their currency to pay off their foreign debts, because now they needed more of their week currency to buy less of foreign currency in order to pay off their foreign debts.

 The crisis in the region had a huge effect on the currencies of the affected countries, note the table below showing the exchange rates of the currencies compared to the US dollar:-

Currency
Exchange rate
(per US$1)
[41]
Change
June 1997
July 1998
24.5
41
40.2%
2,380
14,150
83.2%
26.3
42
37.4%
2.5
4.1
39.0%
850
1,290
34.1%

 

 

 

 

Argentine Financial Crisis - Bader Al Mulla


In 1998, Argentina entered what turned out to be a four year depression, during which its economy shrank 28 percent. Argentina’s experience has been quoted as an example of the failure of free markets and fixed exchange rates, among other things. The evidence does not support those views. Rather, bad economic policies converted an ordinary recession into a depression. Three big tax increases in 2000-2001 discouraged growth, and meddling with the monetary system in mid-2001 created fear of currency devaluation. As a result, confidence in Argentina’s government finances faded. In a series of mistakes that made matters even worse, from December 2001 to early 2002, succeeding governments undermined property rights by freezing bank deposits; defaulting on the government’s foreign debt in an inconsiderate way; ending the Argentine peso’s longstanding link to the dollar; forcibly converting dollar deposits and loans into Argentine pesos at unfavorable rates; and voiding contracts. Achieving sustained long-term economic growth will involve re-establishing respect for property rights.

Argentine’s Financial Crisis (1998-2002) in Statistics:

Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased 28% from peak (1998) to trough (2002).

• Argentina’s currency, the peso, equal to US$1 since April 1991, was devalued in January 2002 and depreciated to nearly 4 per dollar before partly recovering.

• Inflation, low or negative since the early 1990s, was 41% in 2002.

• Unemployment, excluding people working in emergency government relief programs, rose from 12.4% in 1998 to 18.3% in 2001 and 23.6% in 2002.

• The poverty rate rose from 25.9% in 1998 to 38.3% in 2001 and 57.5% in 2002.

• In real terms (that is, adjusted for inflation), wages fell 23.7% in 2002.

Please Post at the earliest.

Hello All,

welcome back after short break.
Hope everyone is doing well.
kindly post at the earliest. Our pace of progress is bit worriesome.
Looking forward to have some more posts.
Vivek Joshi 

Zimbabwe hyperinflation Abdulaziz Ali


Zimbabwe hyperinflation

Zimbabwe scored the second highest inflation rate in the history by 98% in 2008. So how bad was the inflation in Zimbabwe?  The toilet paper cost about $400 Zimbabwe dollar.
I will be listing the monthly inflation rate
Date
Monthly Inflation Rate
5-Jan-07
13.70%
2-Feb-07
77.60%
2-Mar-07
76.70%
5-Apr-07
56.20%
4-May-07
-2.15%
1-Jun-07
207.00%
6-Jul-07
60.40%
3-Aug-07
-7.29%
7-Sep-07
70.60%
5-Oct-07
165.00%
2-Nov-07
193.00%
28-Dec-07
61.50%
25-Jan-08
11.80%
29-Feb-08
259.00%
28-Mar-08
115.00%
25-Apr-08
222.00%
30-May-08
498.00%
26-Jun-08
5,250.00%
4-Jul-08
3,740.00%
11-Jul-08
2,080.00%
18-Jul-08
1,030.00%
25-Jul-08
566.00%
29-Aug-08
3,190.00%
26-Sep-08
12,400.00%
3-Oct-08
15,400.00%
10-Oct-08
45,900.00%
17-Oct-08
493,000.00%
24-Oct-08
15,600,000.00%
31-Oct-08
690,000,000.00%
7-Nov-08
15,200,000,000.00%
14-Nov-08
79,600,000,000.00%

The cause of Zimbabwe hyperinflation:
The government starts printing trillion of Zimbabwe dollars when their economy was quite. If a country have high inflation rate and the government assume that if they print more cash they will fix the problem.  Ones the government realizes that printing the money will increase the inflation rate why didn’t they stop printing? They will not be able to pay their expenses and they will enter a deep depression if they stopped printing their money so they decided to inflate their way out of the crises.
The solution?
1.    To peg their currency
2.    Stop all government spending


Interest rates in the UAE


 All over the world interest rates would help determine the economy savings. Its changes affect investment either limiting profits, or expanding it for economic gain. In the UAE, the law stipulates that interest rates on loan be determined on loan agreement made between the parties involved, failure to which common interest rates in the market provided it does not exceed twelve percent would determine the rate (Baamir 178). Economic need and changes have made a shift of perception from the legislation view based on Sharia facilitating interest in commercial loans, and later in ordinary practices of money-making activities. The economy is well connected to the US dollar through the oil exports which causes serous implications especially in the event of changing oil prices connected to the monetary policy of the US. Real rates of interest have been affected by the existence of low nominal interest rates, following the dollar currency fixation and the increased capital mobility, together with the high inflation.

After the US macroeconomic policy, UAE nominal interest rates has kept close track to the US rates, resulting to real rates of interest becoming increasingly negative, even with the Emirates high inflation and after pegging to the US dollar combined with perfect capital mobility(MacDonald and Al Faris 100). For a long time the UAE struggle has been associated with the lack of independent monetary policy, problem arising from exponential capital mobility and fixed exchange rates. The Central Bank in UAE discontinued matching interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve which effectively led to rising of the relative cost of funds. However, this act of unexpected shift in foreign investment left its relative small economy exposed to market and economic risk. “The Central Bank has lowered its interest rate on repurchase of certificates of deposit from 5% in Q4 of 2007 to 2.25% in Q1 of 2008 in line with several cuts by the US Federal Reserve” then to 2% by Q3 of 2008, 1.5% by Q4 and a constant 1% down in 2010 (Hasan 18). (See table 1).

Table 1: Interest rates in UAE at 3 months inter-bank and repurchase rate between 2008 and 2nd Quarter of 2010


Source: UAE Economic outlook 2010, globalinv.net, September 2010, Web, table 9.

a.      Note: The central bank continues to lessen interest rates in certificates of deposit repurchase from 2008 to a constant value from 2009.

            Commercial banking: this is the concept by which financial institutions are concerned with getting deposits and lending monetary services to businesses at an aggregate level whose aim is to earn profit. According to Jain T., Khanna, Grover, and Jain D., commercial banking entails primary functions that involve accepting of deposit and loans advancement (317). Concentrating on deposits in the bank, customers can choose from a variety of accounts at their convenience. Using fixed deposits accounts, cash is deposited for a fixed period while in Demand deposit accounts, the customer has the right to store and withdraw money the number of times he wishes. For recurring accounts, precise amount is stored, each month for a particular period with strict observation of expiry date for withdrawal purposes. Also, the saving accounts meant to promote small business and individual savings through imposed restrictions by the bank on the amount an individual can withdraw. Recently, commercial banks have introduced portable, home safe saving accounts that are kept at the depositor’s residence though the key is held in the bank.

            Not all the amount of money collected is kept in the bank, but partial quantity is issued as loans in the economy on approved security. Loans advancement by commercial banks includes over-drafts, loans and advances and cash credits. According to Beckwith, from a socialist point of view, commercial banks put idle money and capital  to work and increase the supply of money hence benefiting the society(61- 62). The bank main liability are the deposits made the customers while the bank hold reserves at the fed the same manner customers would  make deposits in the bank. Loans and bonds as bank’s assets are the ones that earn interest for the commercial banks. The required reserve ratio is the fraction of reserve at the fed (commercial banks bank) that is similar to people deposits in the commercial bank. The relation between deposits and reserves are indicated by the following formulas; Reserve = (reserve ratio)*deposit and deposits = (1/reserve ratio) * deposits (Taylor 239).
 

Taylor, John. Principles of Macroeconomics. 5th ed. Boston: Houghton Mifflin Company, 2007. Print.

MacDonald, Ronald, and Al Faris Abdulrazak. Currency Union and Exchange Rate Issues: Lessons for the Gulf States. Cheltenham: Edward Elger Publishing Limited, 2010. Print.

Sunday, December 2, 2012

Marwan Sulaiman - GCC economies














Hyperinflation in Zimbabwe - Rashed Buhumaid

Zimbabwe, the economy that suffered a lot from the hyperinflation that it faced for couple of years, Zimbabwe started as a strong economy in the beginning after it declared independence in the year 1980 considering their growth in many sectors of their economy like the tobacco industry and the production of wheat, and with a strong currency, the Zimbabwean dollar, which was considered to be more valuable compared to the US Dollar, but things changed after that when Robert Mugabe came, he firstly redistributed some lands and gave some farmers the lands that those farmers didn't have the experience and ability to deal with in other words they weren't so good in the farming sector after that in the late 90s the production sector in the country went down specially in the food sector which resulted in many negative results like having unemployment rate increasing up to 80% and life expectancy decreasing with having the food output capacity decreasing more than 40% and one of the excuses that the government used were the economic sanctions that were from Europe and USA. These events resulted in people losing faith in their own currency and also losing trust in their own government which was put into the list of "institutionalized corruption" and got the rank 176th. Black market played a role then in the economy and also the people of Zimbabwe started using other currencies in their own country, specially the US Dollar. Statistics about inflation rates in the economy were very surprising especially in the year 2008 and the changes that took place each month were very terrifying for the economy.



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Student Name: Rashed Buhumaid
Student ID: H00132143