Wednesday, November 28, 2012

European Crisis


Current European crisis: Europe is experiencing a debt crisis that stretches all along from 2008, after the US financial crisis that shook the global economy. The struggle to clear the debt accumulated over the years continues in some European countries that have been affected by the slow down in global economy growth, exposing the unsustainable fiscal policies of European countries just like it is doing around the globe. Portugal, Spain, Italy and Greece are amongst the countries that have not managed to generate enough economic growth to be able to pay back bondholders the guarantee they meant to; hence have been called to embrace strict austerity measure (Alessi cfr.org).  Current European debt is attributed to governments’ spending in the last decade supported by the artificial low interest rates on premiums provided by the European central bank (ECB).  Greece appeared in the limelight first, than other nations after been detected that it had substantial usage and consumption of resources, combined with high wages and government benefits after a period of adoption of the Euro; though it was 1st bailed out with a total of $163 billion loan, and later $178 billion, with a hope that the country would implement strict spending cuts and tax hikes, there exist doubts that the bail out will restore Greece back to its former fiscal stability; hence, the IMF has called on Greece's official creditors (including Germany and the ECB) to bear losses on their holdings of Greek debt ( Alessi cfr.org).

Following the housing bubble collapse in 2008, the bank default crisis encouraged Ireland’s debt crisis while Portugal’s reliance on foreign debt, as expressed by the current account deficit made it vulnerably prone to the crisis. Both the two countries have received bail outs of $112 billion in 2010 (Ireland) and $116 billion in 2011 (Portugal) through the EU-IMF rescue package as they struggle to implement EU-IMF-mandated budget cuts and privatization plans (Alessi cfr.org).  Spain and Italy are also on the verge of crisis where a rescue program is not an option for Italy that holds public debt of over $2.5 trillion. The entire situation has put forth uncertainty on the future of the euro and feasibility of (EMU) European Economic and Monetary Union which led to the formation of the fiscal union as a step to reformation giving the European Union a right to control state budgetary policy of European nations that accepted the agreement.
 

OECD. OECD Economic Outlook Vol.2012/1. Paris: OECD Publishing, 2012. ilibrary. Web. 4 October, 2012.

Alessicfr.org

International trade relation of the UAE


Slide1)
Ministry of foreign Trade:
Regulate Trade Laws in the UAE

Present publications to Prospective international investors

Compile statistical Data about the UAE trade

Produce Reports Concerning the World and also UAE Economic Development and Investments

Publish Reports about other prospective markets to invest in from UAE investors

Operate Trade Offices in Several Countries for potential investors(Geneva –US – India – China)

Slide 2)
Investment prospects in the UAE;
oil and gas:


The UAE is the world's Sixth largest proven oil reserve and the fifth largest natural gas reserve

The UAE is the world's third largest exporter of crude oil

The UAE exports more than 40 percent of its crude oil to Japan

Each Emirate controls its own oil production and resource development. Abu Dhabi holds 94% of the UAE's oil reserves, or about 92.2 billion barrels.
 
Financail Sector:
The banking Industry in the UAE is very Strong.
Free Zone’s in the UAE with 100% foreign ownership privileges, and 0% tax on income and profit
projected a 2.2% GDP growth for the UAE in 2011 Due to the growth in the financial sector 
 statistical data:
imports                                                          rts
    Exports
machinery and transport equipment, chemicals, food
crude oil 45%, natural gas, re exports, dried fish, dates
$202.1 billion
$281.6 billion
India 19.8%, China 13.7%, US 8.1%, Germany 4.6%
Japan 16.2%, India 13.5%, Iran 10.9%, South Korea 5.6%, Thailand 5.5%, Singapore 4.4%
 
refrence:
 
 

Comparison of a two strong economies















Tuesday, November 27, 2012

UAE Stock Markets - ADX & DFM













Works Cited
Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange. (ADX). Yearly Trading Activities. 2011. Web. 14 Nov. 2012.
<http://www.adx.ae/English/Publication/Pages/PublicationsViewer.aspx?CategoryName=855>.
Dubai Financial Market. (DFM).Companies Guide 2010. 2011. Web. 14. Nov. 2012. <http://www.dfm.ae/documents/Publications/ae9aebae-255c-43aa-b751-83d53a876bb3.pdf>.
Global Research. Result Update Equity-UAE Financial Sector: Dubai Financial Market. May 2012. Web. 14 November 2012 <http://content.argaam.com.s3-external-3.amazonaws.com/0b194874-23ed-4495-904e-356a4a342c4d.pdf>.
GulfBase.com. GCC Stock Markets – Periodical Reports. 14 Nov. 2012. Web. 14 Nov. 2012.
<http://www.gulfbase.com/Download/PeriodicalReport/abu-dhabi-stock-exchange-yearly-report?pageID=126&m=3&t=3&d=12/31/2009>
Omet, Ghassan. “Stock Market Liquidity: Comparative Analysis of the Abu Dhabi Stock Exchange and Dubai Financial Market.”Politics and Economic Development: ERF 17TH Annual Conference Held 20-22 March 2011 at Renaissance Antalya Beach Resort& Spa,Antalya. Turkey. 2011. Web. 14 Nov. 2012

UAE set to keep dollar peg - Article

UAE set to keep dollar peg Study says lower rates will offset high costs of refinancing UAE debt By • Staff Published Sunday, September 18, 2011 The UAE will likely keep a long-standing peg between its currency the dirham and the dollar despite recent weakening of the US greenback and fears that this could fuel inflation in the second largest Arab economy. In a study published this week, the Saudi American Bank Group (Samba) said the peg means the borrowing costs in the UAE and other Gulf oil producers will remain linked to those in the United States, adding that current low rates would help offset the costs of refinancing debt in the UAE. “Despite some re-emergence of concerns over the weaker US dollar and its potential inflationary effects through higher import costs in the wake of the US ratings downgrade, we do not expect any change to the UAE’s exchange rate peg to the dollar,” Samba said. “As a result, US interest rate policy will continue to be the main influence on monetary policy in the UAE. This is thus set to remain loose given the recent statements from the US Federal Open Market Committee that the benchmark Federal Funds rate will remain between 0-0.25 per cent.” The report echoed statements by UAE central bank governor Sultan bin Nassir al- Suwaidi that the US debt crisis and ensuing slump in the dollar would not affect the country’s monetary policy and that the dirham would remained tied to the dollar despite fears this could stoke inflation again. But recent government data showed that inflation in the UAE, one of the world’s top 10 oil exporters, remains contained at just 1.3 per cent year-on-year in July. But according to Samba,inflationary pressures are more apparent than this figure suggests as the headline rate continues to be dampened by price declines in the heavily weighted (40 per cent) housing component of the consumer price index, which was down 2.4 per cent. Rents have declined by about 40 per cent in Abu Dhabi and 60 per cent in Dubai since their peak through 2008. In contrast food prices (accounting for 14 per cent of the CPI) were up by around 8.4 per cent year-on-year in July, and other items also posted significant increases. Samba said the weaker US dollar would also have an adverse impact on import costs. “Nonetheless, in light of the first seven months’ trend in the official rate we have revised down our 2011 inflation projection to 1.7 percent, mainly reflecting the impact of sustained weakness in the real estate sector,” it said. “As for interest, with borrowing costs in the GCC generally linked to US rates, the continuation of low rates should help contain the costs of refinancing UAE debt which remains high…however, CDS rates have recently ticked up as risk aversion has intensified following the US ratings downgrade, and mounting concerns over global growth and Eurozone debt problems.” The report said this could have some adverse impact on financing costs particularly in Dubai where the cost of insuring against 5 year sovereign loan default has risen back to 369 – albeit still well below the 460 spike prompted by MENA unrest earlier in the year, and the 900 plus prevailing when the Dubai World debt restructuring was first announced in 2009. http://www.emirates247.com/business/uae-set-to-keep-dollar-peg-2011-09-18-1.418971

Economic Indicators of UAE- Presentation

the role of the UAE in the GCC